Nigeria, 11.10.2022 Solution

Behaviour of NWC/GEO products during the event:

  • Convective Rainfall Rate based on microphysical properties (CRRPh):

At 13h30Z storms have reached the centre of the country. At 14Z a cell is the surrounding area of the international airport with intensities ranging from 30 to 50mm/h. It is an isolated cell however new cells are developing at East.  Day-night transition becomes evident at 15h30Z-15h45Z. The meteorological event is not intensifying.

Pay attention at 17Z, it seems a line of thunderstorms are affecting the same region. This time displaced a bit southward.

At 19Z it may have collected more than 100 according to CRRPh output.

At 20Z, it can be observed in the same region new cells blooming as CRRPh clearly states, were several hours ago convection triggered, indicating convection is still active. It may be interesting pay attention a cell that at 21Z is placed at south east, initially not affecting the airport, however with a strong development moving to the North.

It seems CRR provides remarkable lower vales compared to CRRPh. On the one hand CRRPh may overestimate the precipitation, on the other CRR may underestimate it.

  • Rapid  developing thunderstorms (RDT):

Although this product has the inconvenience of showing some jumps, this time at 15Z shows a cell affecting the airport. At 17Z RDT contours several convective cells that may cross the international airport. This field may help forecaster to take actions.

  • Convection initiation (CI):

Very useful product in this study case because it marks at the left of the cells (in movement direction of the cells) red to pink pixels (high probability of becoming convective cells) between 12Z to 13h45Z in the surrounding area of the airport. Later on at 15h45 it warn us from new developing cells coming from the East.

  • High Resolution Winds (HRW)

It may be useful early in the morning prior to the convection.

Between 7Z to 9Z it shows an area where low to mid-low winds converge. There is still vertical wind shear, a main ingredient to convection. Anticlockwise wind rotation with height show cyclonic vorticity that boosts vertical movements.

  • Satellite Humidity and Instability Products (iSHAI)

Total precipitation water may be one of the most interesting fields for this products, since it shows more than 40 mmh water vertically integrated to the whole atmosphere.

DiffTPW show a bluish zone to the left of active convective zones that affects the airport showing less available water vapour that model shows, however those are high water figures.